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Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for FSD NWS Office

FXUS63 KFSD 302030

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
230 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Quiet conditions continue across the region with latest observations
showing light W/SW winds and temperatures in the positive to
negative single digits. While wind chills have improved since this
morning, still have a vast majority of our area in the negative

Should see winds become a bit more breezy as direction turns
southerly this evening, allowing a bit of WAA to infiltrate the
region. Nonetheless, with mostly clear skies in the forecast and an
expansive snow pack still in place, expect efficient radational
cooling to occur overnight. As a result, have lows once again
falling into the negative single digits to negative teens with wind
chill values ranging from -30 to -20 degrees. Thus, like the past
few nights, have gone ahead and issued an area wide Wind Chill
Advisory from 00z to 16z after collaboration with neighbors.

Otherwise, look for another quiet day to prevail Tuesday. With ample
sunshine in place and W/SW winds, should see afternoon highs
moderate a bit back into the single digits to teens. May even see a
few locations across south central SD approach the lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

We`ll see another cold push of air Tuesday night - however, unlike
days past, do not expect wind chills to reach advisory levels.
Rather, have overnight lows only dipping into the positive to
negative single digits, with wind chills ranging from -15 to -5
degrees. Will still be cold nonetheless, so we encourage you to
bundle up if heading outdoors!

Expect temperatures to slowly moderate heading into mid week,
with highs forecast to rise into the teens to lower 20s both
Wednesday and Thursday. However, as alluded to in the previous
discussion - should see another shot of arctic air return Thursday
night as a Canadian high pressure drifts overhead. As a result,
have overnight lows falling into the negative single digits to
negative teens. Wind chills during this time are currently
flirting with advisory criteria, so will continue to monitor
trends in the coming shifts in the event that future headlines are

Otherwise, look for warmer temperatures to return heading into the
weekend as strong mid-level WAA blossoms across the region.
Currently have highs ranging from mid 20s to mid 30s, with the
warmest values generally along and west of the James River. Lows
will also be notably warmer, as values only fall into the teens. In
regard to precipitation, long term guidance does hint at the
potential for seeing some light snow early next week. However, since
this potential remains in the far latter half of the extended
period, do not plan to put much emphasis on anything just yet.
Certainly something to keep an eye on in the coming days though.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail this TAF cycle. Winds will
transition to be out of south by the early evening hours, becoming
marginally breezy throughout the overnight period. Otherwise, look
for direction to turn southwesterly Tuesday morning.


SD...Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for SDZ066>071.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for SDZ038>040-050-052>065.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for MNZ081-089-090.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for MNZ071-072-080-097-098.

IA...Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for NEZ013-014.




NWS FSD Area Forecast Discussion