Dickinson County Courthouse, Spirit Lake, Iowa

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Forecast Discussion for FSD NWS Office

000
FXUS63 KFSD 011127
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
527 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above normal continue through
  the upcoming weekend. Record high temperatures may be just out
  of reach at times, but record warm minimums will be more
  likely this weekend.

- High to very high fire danger can be expected through Sunday.
  At times, brief critical levels may be experienced,
  especially Friday afternoon and Sunday.

- Precipitation chances continue to remain low early next week.
  Ensemble trends support just a 20 to 30% probability of
  measurable precipitation.

- Quiet and continued above normal temperature remain in place
  through most of next week, next risk for rain arrives later in
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2024

THIS MORNING: Temperatures remain quite warm early Friday morning as
breezy southerly winds continue.  A few higher elevation areas
remain well into the 40s with a 25 to 30 mph gust at times.  A weak
surface trough is in place from central SD into central Nebraska,
this front will mark the delineation point between more rapid
warming later later this morning, as dew points drop.

TODAY: Another very warm day is expected throughout the region on
Friday. The low-lvl airmass remains quite warm and dry through
the region, with 850 mb temperatures above the 90th percentile
of GEFS/EC model climatology. Mixing may be quite variable
across the region by this afternoon, with soundings from Spencer
to Chamberlain showing nearly a mixing height difference of
nearly 2K to 3K feet from west to east this afternoon. This will
have a direct impact on temperatures, with highs once again
surpassing the NBM 90th percentile west of the James River
(65-75 degrees). A bit more cloud cover cast from a trough
moving through Central and Southern Iowa will grace the skies
east of I-29 through early afternoon. Also, the more shallow
mixing may hold temperatures only in the 50s. Winds within a
stronger surface pressure gradient may gust up to 30 mph at
times through NW Iowa and southern MN. Fire weather conditions
will remain elevated, please see separate discussion for
details.

TONIGHT: A stationary front will setup north of Highway 14 tonight.
Southerly winds remain mixy through the night, which will again keep
temperatures well above normal in many locations. Some near
record high minimum temperatures could be possible.

SATURDAY:  An increase in mid-lvl vorticity and approaching upper
jet may cast a bit more cloud cover through the region on Saturday.
That said, with the aforementioned front situated north of the area,
a very warm overnight, and plenty of residual warmth aloft,
temperatures Saturday will again reach 20 to 30+ degrees above
normal by the afternoon. Have bumped high temperatures upwards over
the deterministic NBM, with the coolest readings over northwest Iowa
with a more south to southeast surface wind, and the warmest highs
west of I-29 with a deeper mixed southwest wind. An increase in
surface dew points towards the 30s and 40s will lower the general
fire danger risks slightly.

SUNDAY:  A deeper trough begins to cross the Northern Rockies early
Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis over southwestern South Dakota
will result in an area of low pressure moving northeast into
western Minnesota by mid-day, An associated cold front will race
southeast through the day, producing a bit of a non-standard
diurnal trend. Ahead of the front, mixing should deepen
quickly, resulting in some drier air mixing downward. Have
blended in some 10th percentile guidance to lower dew points
east of I-29. No precipitation is anticipated with the passage
of the front.

MONDAY:  Precipitation chances remain low into Monday behind the
surface trough.  Only weak dPVA is anticipated into Monday morning,
moisture remains situated AOA 700 mb where weak mid-lvl
baroclinicity is found, and there is a stout low-lvl dry layer. That
said, measurable precipitation chances remain only in the 20-30%
range. The abundance of mid-lvl cloud cover Monday should
result in lower temperatures, however the residual low-lvl warm
air may still mean highs climb into the 50s in some areas.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY:  Quasi-zonal to slightly southwesterly flow aloft
persists through the middle of next week. There may be a bit more
daily cloud cover given increasing low-mid lvl moisture by mid-week.
 However temperatures are still expected to remain above normal
through the period.  Medium range guidance becomes a little less
certain beyond Wednesday given uncertainty in digging of an upper
trough into the Southwest.  ECMWF ensemble guidance suggests upwards
of a 50% probability of rain by Thursday, with the GFS much
lower. This results in a much lower confidence forecast, and
will hold onto broad but lower PoPs for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the day today.  We`ll watch the
potential for some low and upper clouds to drift towards northwest
Iowa later this morning, but recent guidance has trended away from
that potential.

Otherwise, gusty southwest winds are expected in areas especially
east of I-29 through the day.  Winds throughout the area should
decrease after sunset.

Mid-lvl and upper clouds may increase towards Saturday morning as
southerly winds continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of the
area today. The area with the highest potential of reaching near
critical fire weather values remains west of the James River,
and more specifically into south central SD. Deeper mixing
should promote a healthy drop in dew points, and with high
temperatures in the 70, RH values fall below 20% in many areas.
The only thing preventing critical conditions (or Red Flag
Warnings) are the lighter winds that may develop in the
afternoon as a weak surface trough approaches and the surface
pressure gradient weakens. The experimental hourly wildfire
potential guidance which factors in soil moisture, winds, gusts
would suggest the greatest potential for development (>50%) would
be in Brule, Charles Mix, and Gregory counties. Further east,
slightly cooler temperatures and a modest increase in dew points
results in higher humidity values, but stronger sustained winds
are also likely.

A broad increase in surface dew points and lighter winds will lead
to fairly widespread elevated, but below critical, fire weather
conditions on Saturday.

Conditions are a bit more uncertain for Sunday with the passage of
the surface front.  Should dew points mix down faster ahead of the
boundary, then critical fire weather conditions could develop in
Northwest Iowa.  Elevated conditions are expected in all other areas
after the front passage.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Dux
FIRE WEATHER...Dux

NWS FSD Area Forecast Discussion